Exploring the Power Play: Emerging Powers’ Competition in the Horn of Africa

Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES) Ethiopia and the Institute of Peace and Security Studies (IPSS) hosted a thought-provoking edition of their Breakfast Meeting series, focusing on the intricate relationships between emerging powers—primarily from the Gulf—and the Horn of Africa (HoA). The event brought together members of the diplomatic community, policymakers, political analysts, leaders of civil society organizations, and other researchers to discuss how these dynamics shape the region’s future.

Accordingly, the meeting aimed at elucidating the different factors and interests that drive the Gulf states economic, and security engagements in the region. Additionally, the meeting attempted to investigate the extent of these relations and its implications for the stability, economic growth and democratization process in the Horn of Africa.

A recurring theme throughout the discussions was the stark asymmetry characterizing the economic and security relationships between the HoA and Gulf states. While the Horn heavily relies on investments and aid from these emerging powers for economic stability, it remains largely insignificant for the Gulf states on a macroeconomic scale. Such imbalances not only risk deepening the HoA's vulnerabilities but also highlight the need for strategic policies that can mitigate potential fallout from failed projects.

Participants also explored the concept of the "implementation gap," where numerous projects announced by Gulf investors in the HoA remain unfulfilled. This gap, partly driven by local challenges like insufficient infrastructure and complex regulations, and partly driven by the partners’ lack of knowledge of the local context and will, further exacerbates the region’s economic fragility.

The security aspect of these relationships was another key discussion point. The HoA’s geographic position makes it a strategic interest for many emerging powers. However, rather than fostering stability, this often leads to external interference in the region’s internal affairs, further destabilizing an already volatile landscape. The participants noted that while HoA countries attempt to leverage their strategic importance, this often results in emergent powers supporting proxies in local conflicts, thereby heightening tensions.

The discussions underscored the critical need for policies that can address these asymmetries and promote both stability and economic growth in the HoA. By understanding the motivations and strategies of emerging powers, HoA countries can better navigate these relationships, ensuring that their economic and security interests are safeguarded. In this context, the state of regional cooperation was explored and it was noted that regional fragmentation in the HoA complicates interregional cooperation. To have a deeper look into regional cooperation potentials and challenges was seen as a topic to discover in another breakfast meeting.